Gartner, the world’s leading information technology research and consulting company, predicts that global shipments of devices (personal computers, tablets, and mobile phones) will reach 2.16 billion units in 2020. Shipments in 2019 were 2.15 billion units, an increase of 0.9% year-on-year.
Gartner senior research director Ranjit Atwal said: “The market will pick up slightly in 2020. Increasing the supply of 5G mobile phones will promote the replacement of mobile phones, and global device shipments will resume growth in 2020.”
The global mobile phone market is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2020 (see Table 1). Smartphone shipments were weak in 2019, down 2% year-on-year. However, smartphone shipments are expected to grow in 2020, especially in Greater China and Asia Pacific emerging markets.
According to Gartner estimates, 5G models will account for 12% of mobile phone shipments in 2020 and 43% in 2022. Mr. Atwal said: “Gartner predicts that with the decline in prices, the increase in 5G service coverage, and the improvement of 5G mobile phone user experience, the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones will start to increase from 2020. The market will achieve further growth in 2023, By then, 5G mobile phones will account for more than 50% of mobile phone shipments. “
The global PC market will decline in 2020 and beyond
Although the personal computer market has resumed growth in 2019, it is expected that the market will continue to decline in 2020 and beyond. The market will be affected by the end of the Windows 10 migration throughout 2020.
After three consecutive years of growth, the number of replacements in the professional PC market will decrease. But the professional personal computer market will usher in an opportunity for replacement in 2020. The Chinese government has launched a plan to make “safe and reliable personal computers” locally. The plan was stagnated in 2019, but it should be accelerated in 2020.
In addition, as Microsoft will end support for Windows 7 on January 14, 2020, small and medium-sized enterprises in emerging regions will upgrade in succession, resulting in a “long tail” effect. Gartner predicts that 1 billion personal computers will be migrated to Windows 10 in 2020, accounting for 80% of the total personal computers currently in use.
Mr. Atwal said: “Because there will be no Windows 11, the future prospects of the personal computer market are ambiguous. Windows 10 will be upgraded through regular updates. Therefore, the entire PC hardware upgrade boom brought by the entire Windows operating system upgrade will end.