Core 10th generation products are tight, or prices will rise early next year

A public apology letter from Intel made the fact that its PC CPU supply was tight and spread quickly in the industry. Recently, by visiting a number of offline stores in Beijing, a reporter from China Business Daily learned that the current supply of Intel Core 10th-generation PC CPUs is tight. Some Intel chip agents and sales staff of offline computer malls have revealed that Intel has issued a notice. Due to tight supply, the purchase price of PC CPUs will increase in January and February next year. And this may make the price of terminal PC increase.

As for the reasons behind the tight supply of Intel PC CPUs, Intel said in an interview a few days ago that this was mainly due to oversupply caused by the market’s overheating demand for its personal computer CPU products.

In fact, according to relevant data released by IDC at the end of November, PC shipments in the Chinese market from 2017 to 2019 have shown a downward trend. Although notebook shipments have increased, the magnitude is not large.

Surprisingly, the current shortage of Intel CPUs not only did not increase the prices of terminal notebook computers. According to IDC senior market analyst Chen Shuzheng, in the consumer notebook market, the average unit price has also fallen.

Respondents engaged in computer hardware related work told our reporter that the current market situation is not due to insufficient supply during the rapid development of the PC market, but rather the opposite is that the shrinking market has caused strategic adjustments, resulting in insufficient supply.

Reach downstream manufacturers

Recently, an official letter appeared on Intel’s official website explaining to its customers the availability of PC CPUs. In this letter, Michelle Johnston Holthaus, Intel’s executive vice president and general manager of the Sales and Marketing Group, apologized to its customers and partners for the tight supply of its PC CPU. He mentioned that Intel’s personal computer CPU products have recently been delayed in shipment.

This is the same situation as the reporter of China Business Daily recently visited several offline PC sales points in Beijing. A PC salesperson said that “it takes two or three days for the purchase.”

When asked what type of CPU is out of stock, the salesperson said that the Intel Core 10th Generation CPU, which was officially listed only a few months ago, was out of stock.

The staff of Lenovo’s offline computer mall mentioned that not only Lenovo, including Dell, also had PC CPU shortages. The sales staff of a “Xiaomi House” store also told reporters that by checking background-related data, only a few “Redbooks” currently on sale are equipped with a 10th generation Intel Core processor , The other models are equipped with processors listed earlier.

Our reporter found at the scene that, as far as the notebook market in personal computers is concerned, it is currently more commonly equipped with Intel Core 8th or 9th generation processors.

In the above apology letter, Intel also mentioned the process of out of stock PC CPU, saying that the company “invested a record capital expenditure to increase the production capacity of 14nm (nanometer) wafers this year, while continuing to increase the production capacity of 10nm.” .

On December 4, Chen Shuzheng said in an interview with reporters, “The phenomenon of stock outs has really existed for some time. Intel does face greater challenges in the process of transitioning from 14nm to the new 10nm chips. The cargo phenomenon will not be resolved in a short period of time, and it may continue to be mitigated until the second half of next year. “

“Intel Core 10th-generation PC CPUs have both 14nm and 10nm. The 10nm process is a newer CPU product. It is estimated that it will be listed next year. Now the 10th generation processors that can be seen on the market should mainly be 14 Nano. I think that their 14nm and 10nm PC CPU supply should be relatively tight. At present, the main shortage in the market is 14nm personal computer CPUs. The apology letter should also be mainly about the lack of 14nm CPUs. Goods phenomenon. “The aforementioned industry sources mentioned.

“The phenomenon of stock-outs has indeed existed for some time, but the situation of stock-outs may not have been so serious before. This situation has improved for a period of time. When the stocks started out, they were both high-end and low-end PC CPUs Out of stock, but may be divided into brands. Core 10th generation CPUs are also divided into i5, i7, etc. For the recent shortages, we are not sure exactly how many cores of the 10th generation CPUs are out of stock. I can only say that the tenth generation is missing, but I don’t know if it is high-end or low-end. “Industry sources told this reporter.

In an apology letter, Intel said that in order to deal with the shortage of PC CPUs, “in addition to expanding Intel’s own manufacturing capabilities, it is also increasing the use of foundries.” As for whether the foundry mentioned by Samsung is a Samsung who has spoken online, recently, the reporter also asked Intel and Samsung for verification, but neither responded.

“The yield problem of PC CPUs in the 10-nanometer process can be seen as a ‘fuse’ for the shortage of Intel PC’s 14-nanometer CPUs.” The aforementioned industry person who asked not to be named mentioned in an interview with reporters.

A personage in the industry told this reporter that early in 2019, Intel was trying to improve the yield of 10-nm PC CPUs, so it has always paid more attention to the production of 10-nm PC CPUs. There is a relatively insufficient production of 14-nm CPUs. Happening.

The source told reporters that notebook computers equipped with the 10th generation Core CPU are also relatively out of stock in the terminal market, and manufacturers have no new products to fill up, which is mainly because the original inventory has been sold out, but the new products are Lack of CPU can not make up normally, so lead to out of stock phenomenon. The market demand exceeded Intel’s expectations, and the production capacity could not meet the market demand. As a result, downstream manufacturers could not prepare new products, and finally the PC terminal market was out of stock.

“From the market response in the second and third quarters, including the fourth quarter, consumer demand for notebooks is still high in the consumer market.” Chen Shuzheng mentioned.

This view is somewhat similar to that of Mr. Liang, who works in computer hardware related industries. In his opinion, the reason for the shortage of PC CPU may be caused by Intel’s adjustment of its own strategy. The original CPU needs process upgrades in terms of process level and performance. Intel’s estimate of the original PC market is lower, but the reduction is not as large as the actual market demand increase, so the production capacity cannot meet the market demand.

The aforementioned Xiaomi House sales staff also mentioned that the inventory of laptops equipped with Core 10th-generation processors is low, mainly due to the hot market demand. In his opinion, the latest version of the CPU, and the price is not much different from the previous version, consumers are more sought after notebooks equipped with Core 10th generation CPU.

However, what needs to be seen is that although the notebook market demand has increased, according to data released by IDC on November 28, 2019, from 2017 to 2019, the overall PC shipments in the Chinese market showed a downward trend.

In 2017, the total shipments of the personal computer market, including desktops and notebooks, were 53.82 million, of which 31.37 million were desktops, 21.96 million were notebooks, and 490,000 were workstations. In 2019, overall shipments fell to 48.1 million, of which desktops fell to 23.93 million, the notebook market grew to 23.56 million, and workstations increased to 610,000.

“Especially in the business notebook market, shipments have fallen quite severely.” Chen Shuchen told this reporter.

In addition, Mr. Deng, who is engaged in computer work, also told this reporter that Intel’s products include desktop-level CPUs, notebook CPUs, server CPUs, motherboard chips, network cards, and graphics chips. If these different products also use the 14nm process, they may also consume PC CPU capacity.

In this regard, Mr. Liang also holds the same view, thinking that Intel PC CPUs are out of stock or that their cloud market or server market demand has squeezed the production capacity of PC CPUs.

“From the overall situation of the market, if you don’t look at commercial products, in the consumer PC market, prices will not only go up but also go down.” Chen Shuchen mentioned to this reporter.

In her opinion, there are two reasons for this. “One is that there are still products on the market that are equipped with seventh and eighth generation Intel CPUs, and the prices are relatively low. The market share of AMD’s CPU products is increasing, and the prices of products equipped with AMD CPUs are relatively low, so the average unit price of PCs in the consumer market is currently declining. “

“Future computing power competition is in the cloud, on the edge, on the Internet of Things.” In Mr. Liang’s view, Intel’s PC CPU market may gradually shrink. As cloud computing power increases, terminal computing power requirements will decrease. Supply will also decrease, which will affect the price of PCs, but there will be no large fluctuations.

In addition, the interviewed Intel chip agents and sales staff of offline computer stores have stated that they have been notified that Intel will increase the PC CPU purchase price in January and February next year, and the price of terminal PCs may increase accordingly .

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